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ERA Foundation commissioned report on the sustainability of UK productive industry.
Background
The Board of the ERA Foundation commissioned a background study from Oxford Innovation on “The Sustainability of the UK Economy in an Era of Declining Productive Capability”. The full report can be downloaded here (PDF).

Main Findings
The principal findings of the background study (with report references in italics) are -

  • Manufacturing remains very important to the UK economy, accounting for 14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), half of UK exports, 75% of industrial R&D, and employment for over 3 million (11.2% of the workforce) – see paragraph 1.2.
  • The scale of the UK’s trade gap in goods (mainly manufacturing) has deteriorated markedly in the past decade – see Figure 2.2. A £20Bn trade surplus on financial and business services (which now accounts for 25% of GDP) only makes good about one third of the £60Bn trade deficit in goods.
  • The overall trade gap has worsened by 20% pa since 2000 – see Figure 2.3. It needs to be stressed that this figure is in £M “cash of the day” with no allowance for inflation and GDP growth, which tends to dampen out the appearance of past variations when compared with those of recent years.
  • The percentage of GDP represented by manufacturing has declined from 27% to 14% over the past 25 years – see paragraph 3.4. Although this decline is often attributed to outsourcing and reclassification of certain manufacturing activities as financial and business services, only 20% of the decline can be attributed to this cause – see paragraph 3.6.
  • The manufacturing sectors which make up the largest proportion of exported goods and create most value are chemicals, transport equipment, electrical and office equipment – see Figure 3.5.
  • The sectors which ended 2007 in surplus were chemicals, transport equipment, basic metals, publishing, and tobacco products – see Figure 3.5.
  • UK manufacturing sectors have grown more slowly than other advanced economies over the past 25 years – see paragraph 3.13.
  • Figure 3.7 shows the UK Current Account Balance compared with other major industrialised economies. This figure is shown in US $Bn, and tends to exaggerate the magnitude of the US deficit because of the size of that economy.
  • Manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) per employee in the UK (£48k) is higher than other sectors (£31k on average) – see paragraph 4.5.
  • Investors from outside the UK own about 40% of UK shares listed on the London Stock Exchange – see paragraph 4.7. Whilst only 4% of UK businesses are foreign-owned – see paragraph 4.11 – these are in general the larger companies which contribute 33% of manufacturing GVA – see paragraph 4.14.
  • Whilst foreign-owned firms have had a positive impact upon UK productivity, they are likely to locate higher-value activities such
    as research, design, development, branding and marketing in their home country.
The Sustainability of the UK Economy in an Era of Declining Productive Capability - Front Cover

Any comments on this report should be forwarded to David Clark at davidh.clark@era.co.uk